On Manifold Markets, "Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? — IFT 15" has a probability of 22.8%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.