If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time." has a probability of 6.6%.