If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation." has a probability of 11.0%.