If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability." has a probability of 0.3%.