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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

76.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?" has a probability of 76.5%. Trading volume: $2.9M.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$2.9M
Volume 24h
$44K
Liquidity
$110K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
76.0% / 77.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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