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Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

27.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?" has a probability of 27.0%. Trading volume: $4K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$4K
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$754
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
26.0% / 28.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Th…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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