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Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

20.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?" has a probability of 20.5%. Trading volume: $144K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 21m ago
Volume
$144K
Volume 24h
$14
Liquidity
$17K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
20.0% / 21.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. T…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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