Home › Science › Megaquake by June 30?

Megaquake by June 30?

22.0%

Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Megaquake by June 30?" has a probability of 22.0%. Trading volume: $43K.

View on Polymarket →

Probability Over Time

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 1h ago

Volume

$43K

Volume 24h

$380

Liquidity

$3K

Traders

—

Bid / Ask

20.0% / 24.0%

Spread

4.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Jun 2026

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product

Home Consensus 2+Multi-Outcome Changelog

Learn

About Methodology FAQ API

Legal

Privacy Terms Contact