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Natural Disaster in 2026?

28.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Natural Disaster in 2026?" has a probability of 28.5%. Trading volume: $198K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 9h ago
Volume
$198K
Volume 24h
$54
Liquidity
$14K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
28.0% / 29.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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