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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

45.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" has a probability of 45.5%. Trading volume: $445K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 4h ago
Volume
$445K
Volume 24h
$59K
Liquidity
$79K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
45.0% / 46.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily tran…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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