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US recession by end of 2026?

24.5%

Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "US recession by end of 2026?" has a probability of 24.5%. Trading volume: $1.3M.

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Probability Over Time

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 9h ago

Volume

$1.3M

Volume 24h

$62K

Liquidity

$57K

Traders

—

Bid / Ask

24.0% / 25.0%

Spread

1.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Jan 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as re…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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