On Manifold Markets, "What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE] — The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare." has a probability of 7.4%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.