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Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

24.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?" has a probability of 24.5%. Trading volume: $1.0M.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$1.0M
Volume 24h
$26K
Liquidity
$70K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
24.0% / 25.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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