MethodologyAPI
Home › Science › Will a hurricane make landfall in the ...

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

8.6%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?" has a probability of 8.6%. Trading volume: $12K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$12K
Volume 24h
$222
Liquidity
$3K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
8.1% / 9.0%
Spread
0.9%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archiv…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology