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Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

78.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" has a probability of 78.5%. Trading volume: $319K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$319K
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$53K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
78.0% / 79.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes t…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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