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Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

76.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" has a probability of 76.5%. Trading volume: $90K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$90K
Volume 24h
$418
Liquidity
$12K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
76.0% / 77.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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