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Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

15.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?" has a probability of 15.5%. Trading volume: $6K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$6K
Volume 24h
$21
Liquidity
$9K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
14.0% / 17.0%
Spread
3.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Aren…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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