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Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

10.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?" has a probability of 10.5%. Trading volume: $5K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$5K
Volume 24h
$15
Liquidity
$3K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
9.0% / 12.0%
Spread
3.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https:…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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