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Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

60.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?" has a probability of 60.0%. Trading volume: $83K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$83K
Volume 24h
$594
Liquidity
$7K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
57.0% / 63.0%
Spread
6.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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