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Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

26.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?" has a probability of 26.5%. Trading volume: $348K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$348K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$8K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
26.0% / 27.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" sectio…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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