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Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

4.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" has a probability of 4.0%. Trading volume: $567K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$567K
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$93K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
3.9% / 4.0%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Oct 2026
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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