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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

8.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" has a probability of 8.5%. Trading volume: $2.4M.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 9h ago
Volume
$2.4M
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$76K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
8.4% / 8.6%
Spread
0.2%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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