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Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

2.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?" has a probability of 2.0%. Trading volume: $12K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$12K
Volume 24h
$39
Liquidity
$3K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
1.2% / 2.8%
Spread
1.6%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program …

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