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Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

40.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?" has a probability of 40.5%. Trading volume: $246K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$246K
Volume 24h
$350
Liquidity
$6K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
39.0% / 42.0%
Spread
3.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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