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Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?

18.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?" has a probability of 18.5%. Trading volume: $16K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 54m ago
Volume
$16K
Volume 24h
$442
Liquidity
$2K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
17.0% / 20.0%
Spread
3.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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