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Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

0.7%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?" has a probability of 0.7%. Trading volume: $7K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$7K
Volume 24h
$172
Liquidity
$2K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
0.5% / 0.9%
Spread
0.4%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program …

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