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Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

2.8%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?" has a probability of 2.8%. Trading volume: $118K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$118K
Volume 24h
$156
Liquidity
$10K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
2.7% / 2.8%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Surve…

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This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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