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Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?

4.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?" has a probability of 4.5%. Trading volume: $12K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$12K
Volume 24h
$534
Liquidity
$787
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey …

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This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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