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Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

0.8%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?" has a probability of 0.8%. Trading volume: $191K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$191K
Volume 24h
$23K
Liquidity
$7K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
0.6% / 0.9%
Spread
0.3%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthqua…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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