On Manifold Markets, "World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity] — A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed" has a probability of 45.2%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.