Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?" has a consensus probability of 93.8%. Polymarket: 94.7%, Manifold: 92.8%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.