Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?" has a consensus probability of 58.2%. Polymarket: 56.5%, Manifold: 59.0%, Gemini: 59.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.