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Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NFL Draft? — David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

78.9%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 29pp spread

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NFL Draft? — David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech" has a consensus probability of 78.9%. Manifold: 60.9%, Gemini: 90.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
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61%
30 traders
Gemini
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90%
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
Gemini
Updated 1d ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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