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Dtdi54Tmowiitsjczi8W

13 candidates tracked. 0 with cross-platform consensus.

1
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2029
16.4%
2
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2030
16.1%
3
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2031
12.6%
4
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — This will not have happened before the end of 2035.
11.1%
5
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2032
8.4%
6
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2028
8.0%
7
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2033
7.5%
8
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2035
6.7%
9
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2034
6.2%
10
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2027
4.0%
11
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2026
1.0%
12
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2024
1.0%
13
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? — 2025
1.0%
Top Candidates Over Time
Event Details
Manifold (13 markets)
Candidates
13
Cross-Platform
0
Total Volume
—
Volume 24h
—
Total Liquidity
—
Updated
5h ago
Opened
Jun 2026
Resolves
Jan 2036

About This Event

Candidates with the "consensus" badge have probabilities computed from multiple prediction market platforms using geometric mean of odds. Others show single-platform data. Methodology →

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