Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 5.9%. Gemini: 7.0%, Manifold: 5.2%, Polymarket: 5.6%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.