Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" has a consensus probability of 8.9%. Manifold: 9.8%, Gemini: 8.5%, Polymarket: 8.6%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.