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English Premier League Relegation 2025-26? — Leeds

15.5%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 6pp spread · $2K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "English Premier League Relegation 2025-26? — Leeds" has a consensus probability of 15.5%. Gemini: 19.0%, Manifold: 12.9%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Gemini
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19%
$2K
Manifold
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13%
44 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Gemini
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$2K
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
Manifold
Updated 1h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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