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English Premier League Winner 2025-26? — Arsenal

60.7%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 4pp spread · $4K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "English Premier League Winner 2025-26? — Arsenal" has a consensus probability of 60.7%. Gemini: 62.0%, Manifold: 58.3%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Gemini
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62%
$4K
Manifold
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58%
23 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Gemini
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$4K
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
Manifold
Updated 5h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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