Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?" has a consensus probability of 24.2%. Polymarket: 24.5%, Manifold: 24.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.