Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Human moon landing in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 2.6%. Polymarket: 4.3%, Manifold: 1.6%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.