Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?" has a consensus probability of 56.7%. Manifold: 38.7%, Gemini: 85.0%, Polymarket: 38.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.