Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?" has a consensus probability of 4.2%. Polymarket: 2.5%, Manifold: 4.9%, Gemini: 6.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.