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Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

17.7%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
3 platforms · 1pp spread · $20.4M

Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" has a consensus probability of 17.7%. Manifold: 17.0%, Gemini: 18.0%, Polymarket: 16.4%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
View →
17%
343 traders
Gemini
View →
18%
$258K
Polymarket
View →
16%
$20.1M
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 2h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jul 2026
Gemini
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$258K
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jul 2026
Polymarket
Updated 26d ago
Volume
$20.1M
Liquidity
$639K
Bid / Ask
16.4% / 16.5%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jul 2026
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immedia…

About This Consensus

Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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