Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?" has a consensus probability of 29.1%. Polymarket: 29.5%, Gemini: 31.0%, Manifold: 26.8%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.