On Manifold Markets, "[ACX 2026] Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?" has a probability of 18.6%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.