On Futuur, "Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? — Between 1.48 °C and 1.51 °C (inclusive)" has a probability of 18.0%. Trading volume: $25.
View on Futuur →This question is currently tracked on Futuur only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.