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European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

6.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? " has a probability of 6.5%. Trading volume: $106K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$106K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$17K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for t…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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