If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment." has a probability of 1.2%.