If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values." has a probability of 9.8%.