On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans." has a probability of 8.5%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.